![]() ![]() So is Google Trends better than polling? In short, no, but kind of. Searches for Amy Klobuchar demonstrate an even lower interest than her national polling numbers.Kamala Harris is polling fifth nationally, but people are showing more interest Googling Andrew Yang and Tulsi Gabbard.Pete Buttigieg‘s surge in the recent Iowa poll had a massive impact on people Googling him.Elizabeth Warren is the least Googled candidate of the top four and only has higher search interest in a handful of states.Here are the four most interesting things I learned: I took a look at the Google Trends data in increasingly shorter time periods, starting with the last 12 months and ending with the last seven days to see how the search landscape has shifted. If your campaign heads into the early primaries on the top of people’s minds, you stand a good chance of coming away the victor, or at least with a sizable number of delegates. If you come into the World Series as the hottest team in baseball, you are destined to win, like the Nationals. Politics, like sports, is all about momentum. People claim that Google Trends can predict things like the most popular Halloween costume, the best time to leave Seattle to avoid Thanksgiving traffic and the 2015 Canadian elections. Using Google Trends to compare the top four candidates That is a small group of people who are having an outsized influence on several news cycles, putting Mayor Pete on front pages, home pages, top of curated news feeds and into the consciousness of a lot of people. It is important to stress that this is a poll, conducted between November 8 and 13, of only 500 people, so that 25% represents 125 people. He is now sitting at 25% of Democratic caucusgoers, with Elizabeth Warren coming in second at 16%. Of course, we have been following the recent surge in Iowa for Pete Buttigieg in the latest polls. The next debate is coming up this evening in Atlanta. I am fascinated by SEO and search intent, leading me to ask the question, can Google Trends supplant the ubiquity of polling in political campaigns? ![]()
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